In June 2026, the GBPI index still stood at 99.9, up from 99.5 last March. A reading above 100 indicates sectoral expansion, while a number below 100 indicates contraction, offering a clear snapshot of business trends. The change was driven primarily by both assemblers and parts manufacturers. Across the survey’s three main categories, the assemblers and parts manufacturers’ index increased to 100.4. The indices for distributors significantly increased from 97.8 in March to 99.7 this June. However, they were still behind the two other categories.
Industry situation
The return to a more stable situation in the industry is remarkable amid all geopolitical turmoil. Still, only 57% of respondents assessed the industry situation as average to very good. In the short term, 85% expect the overall condition of the industry to be stable or better, up from 78% last March.
The fact that the industry situation looks stable certainly doesn’t mean all companies have flattened their inventory and improved their financial positions again. No less than 26% indicated that the situation of their own company is bad to very bad, while just 30% regard it as good to very good. Both haven’t changed since last March.
Inventory levels increasing again
For a long time, supply chain constraints, combined with very high inventory levels, hampered the industry to the point that innovations were postponed and companies urgently sought financial support. The June 2026 GBPI clearly indicates changes, as the indices for new incoming orders continue to rise. In November 2025, 31% of the respondents reported an increase. This had already gone up to 45% in March and now ends at 52%.
The geopolitical situation could explain the rise in industry inventory levels. “The uncertainty in the Gulf region and around the Suez channel makes the supply chain very unpredictable,” said Velo de Ville MD and Cycling Industries Europe (CIE) vice president Volker Thiemann at Taipei Cycle Show last March. He also called for OEMs to build up their own stock in Europe to maintain flexibility. “The volatility in the oil market and the rapid increases in raw material prices make it impossible to make planning decisions,” added Thiemann. “The energy issue and shortages in South-East Asia will also impact production.”
Purchasing levels
In the long-term outlook, the purchase levels between assemblers, component manufacturers, and distributors vary significantly. In previous GBPI reports, the differences have never diverged so much as this June.
While the bike assemblers reported a decrease in their parts and components inventory from 35% last March to 30% now, the distributors reported an opposite trend of bikes in stock, of 30% last March to 43% this June. This shift in inventory from assemblers to distributors might indicate the second category is preparing for the second half of the year. However, it could also mean that the bicycle distributors overestimated market expectations, and they are now faced with increasing inventory levels.
Presentation at Eurobike
The latest GBPI report will be presented on Wednesday, 24 June at Eurobike. The event will take place on stage from 15:10-15:40 during the sourcing summit in Hall 8, J40.
It is worth noting that the June 2026 GBPI data were collected before the most recent US-Iran signing of the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. How the latest changes in the geopolitical situation impact the index will be revealed in the next GBPI, which will be published on 30 September 2026.
